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[2] An example of a retrospective gambler's fallacy would be to observe multiple successive ”heads” on a coin toss and conclude from this that the previously unknown flip was ”tails”. [2] Real world examples of retrospective gambler's fallacy have been argued to exist in events such as the origin of the Universe. In his book Universes , John Leslie argues that ”the presence of vastly many universes very different in their characters might be our best explanation for why at least one universe has a life-permitting character”. [3] Daniel M. Oppenheimer and Benoît Monin argue that ”In other words, the 'best explanation' for a low-probability event is that it is only one in a multiple of trials, which is the core intuition of the reverse gambler's fallacy.” [2] Philosophical arguments are ongoing about whether such arguments are or are not a fallacy, arguing that the occurrence of our universe says nothing about the existence of other universes or trials of universes. [4] [5] Three studies involving Stanford University students tested the existence of a retrospective gamblers' fallacy. All three studies concluded that people have a gamblers' fallacy retrospectively as well as to future events. [2] The authors of all three studies concluded their findings have significant ”methodological implications” but may also have ”important theoretical implications” that need investigation and research, saying ”[a] thorough understanding of such reasoning processes requires that we not only examine how they influence our predictions of the future, but also our perceptions of the past.” [2] In 1796, Pierre-Simon Laplace described in A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities the ways in which men calculated their probability of having sons: ”I have seen men, ardently desirous of having a son, who could learn only with anxiety of the births of boys in the month when they expected to become fathers. Imagining that the ratio of these births to those of girls ought to be the same at the end of each month, they judged that the boys already born would render more probable the births next of girls.” The expectant fathers feared that if more sons were born in the surrounding community, then they themselves would be more likely to have a daughter. This essay by Laplace is regarded as one of the earliest descriptions of the fallacy. [6] Likewise, after having multiple children of the same sex, some parents may erroneously believe that they are due to have a child of the opposite sex. Non-examples Edit.
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